The Finals of the Euros
2 teams. 1 match. So many storylines.
This is it.
No more mucking about. No more sunshine and roses. The final game. After all that buildup and hype the final two are Spain and England. They’ve taken extremely different paths to their campaign, Spain are the only team with a perfect record so far. They also boast a perfect record in finals since 2001 on the other side England have somehow bundled their way into the final.
However, finals do not care for what has happened before they have no memory of events that occurred before. It follows the core principle of chance has no memory. Simply speaking past outcomes have no effect on the current outcome.
As Klopp keeps reminding us “The beauty of football is that it's a game where anything can happen. You can never be sure of the outcome.”
To give you an example of this look no further than this year’s FA cup final featuring the Manchester Derby. A thoroughly underperforming Manchester United who were to put it very kindly a mess(like they very often are) triumphed over arguably the best team in the world in Manchester City.
With that in consideration let us look at our two finalists :
Spain
Lamine Yamal
Before I even start talking about Spain. I must talk about Lamine Yamal again. How is this kid 17 years old????
He defies all statistical metrics, all outliers look normal with respect to him. It appears as if the very spirit of Jogo Bonito runs through him.
Before I even attempt to move further I must talk about that goal.
France were ahead and had not conceded from open play the entire tournament. Adrien Rabiot in his pre match interview said, “It will be up to us to put pressure on him, but we want him to come out of his comfort zone. If you want to play at a Euro final, you need to do more than he has done up until now.”
This is where he creates space for himself and what makes him so very special.
He drags Rabiot towards him and feints cuts back inside and creates enough separation when there was none a second ago.
Unleashes it straight into the top corner from here.
Was it fate that Rabiot was the individual dazzled by his quick feet unable to prevent him from unleashing his shot?
Some stories write themselves.
Third Man Runs
Something that a lot of teams at club level have a tendency to do is try to create space for themselves by dragging the opposition defense through intricate passing. Box crashers are a unique breed of midfielders who have an eye for the goal.
One facet of Spain’s unbelievably good run this Euros is their ability to :
A) Have brilliant crossers in Yamal Williams and Carvajal.
B) Supplement these crossers with brilliant runs into the box which completely surprise the backline.
In Dani Olmo, Fabian Ruiz and Fermin Lopez they have really smart box crashers if they ever need someone to get onto the end of these crosses.
For example in their game against France as early as the fourth minute. Yamal picks up the ball from a cross that Williams delivers. He shifts inside and Hernandez is slow to block the cross.
Now, if you think France are well covered in the box here. You wouldn’t be wrong Upamecano and Saliba have taken up really good positions and should be winning this ball.
That is where the beauty of the third man run comes into picture. A perfect run disrupts the line completely, overloads it and causes chaos.
Tchouameni falls asleep Kounde is distracted by Williams behind him, Rabiot is attracted to the ball and Spain have an overload.
I have to credit Kounde here he spots the danger and makes it awkward for Ruiz to get his header perfectly even though he knows he’s going to lose the aerial duel.
They almost score from this and warning bells go off.
However this isn’t something that has happened for the first time. In my last article, I wrote specifically about how Spain’s third man runs into the box have been near on unstoppable.
Out Of Possession
Spain have also been impressive out of possession with their pressing. Led by the experienced Alvaro Morata and supplemented by two young and hungry wingers. They have a very man to man oriented press in the tournament. They often choose to put either Yamal or Pedri as the secondary striker to push up onto the other opposition CB.
Pushing Yamal on to the other CB
The more conservative approach by pushing the number 10 onto the CB. This asks Fabian Ruiz to press the opposition 6 on the ball as Rodri stays back to reinforce the defense.
This is a weakness for Spain and can be exploited by aerially dominant players that England have. Rodri is the best holding midfielder in the world by a country mile. However, he can be overwhelmed by two individuals with very unique profiles.
Spain are in pole position to win the tournament. However, one off games always have the ability to come up with something out of the blue.
England
How have England managed to get themselves into another European final?
They have been to put it very gently, confused for the vast majority of the tournament. They have some ridiculously talented individuals who just have not been able to click. However, they show incredible resilience and have overcome yet another penalty shootout on their way to the finals.
Southgate has adopted a very risk aversive approach to games in the Euros after his Trent as a midfielder experiment failed spectacularly not because of a lack of quality on the player’s end but because the execution was so spectacularly poor. He was given an arsenal of sharp knives and chose to use the blunt side.
England have very unique profiles in their squad, and have a more diverse bench as a result of the same. This allows Southgate a lot of flexibility with his substitutions. There is a sense of optimism for them that seems to forget the horrendous football played over the course of the tournament.
Their horrific run to the Finals will all be forgiven if they end up victorious on Sunday night. Football fans have short term memories and are easily persuaded by a glittery end ask Manchester United fans. Suddenly it makes so much sense why he was linked to that club in the first place.
Enough shots at United, let’s talk about how England will play in the final.
Tactics?
Southgate has chosen a very consistent core of players in the build up to the tournament namely Saka, Stones, Walker, Rice, Bellingham and Foden. Saka is an exceptionally talented player whose greatest skill in my opinion is his decision making. It is no wonder that Saka has been England’s most consistent player coming up with crucial goal contributions.
On the other end of the spectrum having options in someone like Wharton who is a smart dueller and a brilliant progressor of the ball, Anthony Gordon who is fast,direct and tricky winger. Connor Gallagher who is an out of possession machine, Toney and Watkins who offer something radically different to Harry Kane with smart off the ball runs and great aerial presence.
Finally there is Kobbie Mainoo.
Kobbie Mainoo
When I used to think of England midfielders of the Scholes and Gerrard era the first thing that comes to my mind is the under utilization of someone like Michael Carrick who was such an outlier to the way English football was played at the time. There was a sense of calmness every time Carrick had the ball.
Something that makes Mainoo stand out is his ability to do the simple things perfectly. His ability to choose the right decision at the right time is absolutely unbelievable. Simply for someone so young, such decision making is exemplary.
His addition to the squad has seen England retain the ball better and has added another dimension to their football. It is no wonder than England have looked a lot better with Mainoo in the team.
His decision making is on show below
He picks up the ball between the lines and starts running into the free space.
A quick look to his left to see if someone has attacked the massive space in front of the referee.
Now, look at Van Dijk’s body shape. If Kobbie releases the ball now he is in pole position to reach the ball before Foden so he delays the pass and takes another touch.
Notice Van Dijk’s body shape, he is arched towards Foden to stop the ball being played to him, surely this move dies out right??
Nope, Kobbie delays the ball just enough to get Van Dijk facing him and releases a beautiful ball into Foden who should score.
Not bad for an 18 year old.
I could talk about Mainoo all day and all night. However, it is time to think about how England can stop the smart and intricate Spaniards.
England’s hopes
Let me be blunt Southgate isn’t going to make any changes to the side that won him the game against Netherlands. What is surely in England’s favour is the quartet in midfield who should fare better against the Spanish man to man press. However, I thoroughly doubt England’s capability of building up from the back with Spain’s aggressive pressing.
The aim of the England game is to wait. Their best chances will come down the Spanish left Mainoo Foden and Saka have combined in recent games to great effect and possess a real threat to the Spanish defense. Spain have been culpable down the left and have conceded their last two goals from crosses into the left channel behind Laporte and in front of Cucurella.
Cucurella while being a good defender and a decent dueller is culpable to getting beaten by tricky wingers when faced in 1v1 scenarios. Spain against France gave Mbappe a lot of time and space on the left which they were not punished for with France looking excessively dysfunctional throughout the tournament.
If England make it out of the first half without conceding, they have players on the bench who can come on and make a massive difference. In Trent they have this generation’s best crosser of the ball. In Gallagher they have an individual who has come up thrice against the likes of Rodri and has made his life extremely difficult with his pressing and intensity. Lastly they have the dangerous duo of Toney and Watkins who can be thrown as a last ditch effort to overlaod the Spanish box and aerially dominate them.
However, England surviving that first 45 minutes depends on a lot of factors such as Saka staying alert when defending the likes of Williams or Cucurella down the left hand side. There is an added element of tracking the third man runs. While Kobbie is an exciting prospect he still has to hone the physical side to the game and can be left on his heels by a smart tricky player like Olmo.
The major chances that England will have to rely on will be from dead ball scenarios. I do not see them going man for man and engaging against Spain in a high press like Germany did. I thoroughly expect England to set up in a low to mid compact block and reduce the gaps between the lines.
So who wins it?
I have to say England have the psychological advantage with having gone a goal down late into the game knowing they can still salvage something out of it. I believe this will be in the back of De La Fuente’s mind as well and he may choose an aggressive method to blow England out of the water early on. I thoroughly expect Spain to come out of the gates flying like they did against Germany.
However, if the finals do surprise you remember :
Finals have no memories of prior events.